Key Concepts in Pretest Probability Estimation

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52787/agl.v54i1.385

Keywords:

Pretest probability, mathematical calculation, clinical event

Abstract

In general terms, probability is a mathematical calculation that determines the likelihood of something happening. In healthcare medicine, this term is commonly used to describe the possibility that a clinical event (usually the occurrence of a particular disease) may occur in a population or, more often, in an individual patient.

References

-1. Uy EJB. Key concepts in clinical epidemiology: Estimating pretest probability. J ClinEpidemiol. 2022:144:198-202. https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.10.022

-2. Johnson KM. Using Bayes' rule in diagnostic testing: a graphical explanation. Diagnosis (Berl). 2017;4:159-167. https://DOI.org/10.1515/dx-2017-0011

-3. Bours MJ. Bayes' rule in diagnosis. J ClinEpidemiol. 2021:131:158-160. https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.12.021

-4. Lakhlifi C, Rohaut B. Heuristics and biases in medical decision-making under uncertainty: The case of neuropronostication for consciousness disorders. Presse Med. 2023;52:104181. https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.lpm.2023.104181

-5. Kakinohana RK, Pilati R. Differences in decisions affected by cognitive biases: examining human values, need for cognition, and numeracy. Psicol Reflex Crit. 2023;36:26. https://DOI.org/10.1186/s41155-023-00265-z

-6. Morgan DJ, Pineles L, Owczarzak J, Magder L, Scherer L, Brown JP, et al. Accuracy of Practitioner Estimates of Probability of Diagnosis Before and After Testing. JAMA Intern Med. 2021;181:747-55. https://DOI.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.0269

-7. Richardson WS. Five uneasy pieces about pre-test probability. J Gen Intern Med. 2002;17:882-883. https://DOI.org/10.1046/j.1525-1497.2002.20916.x

-8. Cui J. Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research. Ann Epidemiol2009;19:711-717. https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2009.05.005

-9. Elosua R. Cardiovascular risk functions: usefulness and limitations. Rev EspCardiol (Engl Ed) 2014;67:77-79. https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.rec.2013.09.012

Published

2024-03-25

How to Cite

Masson, W. (2024). Key Concepts in Pretest Probability Estimation. Acta Gastroenterológica Latinoamericana, 54(1), 8–13. https://doi.org/10.52787/agl.v54i1.385